Mathematically Predicting the Arrival of Human-Level Artificial Intelligence

Artificial Intelligence Mathematics Singularity

Michael Anissimov, Steve Rayhawk, Anna Salamon, Tom McCabe, and Rolf Nelson have released the beta version of an application created from a Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence research project. The Uncertain Future predicts when human-level Artificial Intelligence will arrive based upon a rigorous mathematical model.

The application allows users to provide their own estimates as to the likelihood of key parameters. To assist you in determining the values of these parameters, links to noted schools of thought are provided with corresponding values spanning the gamut from true naysayer to advocate. Do you believe that Artificial Intelligence is impossible in principle like John Searle, or are you as optimistic as Stephen Hawking?

Check out Michael’s blog about the topic and then visit The Uncertain Future to see what your estimates predict. What were your results?


2 thoughts on “Mathematically Predicting the Arrival of Human-Level Artificial Intelligence

  1. I don’t think that AI is an existential risk. It is going to be more of a golden opportunity. For some not for all.
    Given that most people oppose AI on various basis (religious, economic) chances are it will be implemented in a small group, and very few people will get to benefit from it. Wealthy people would probably be the first to use it.
    This isn’t a regular technology and it will not go first to the rich and then to everybody else, like it happened with the phones or computers in a couple of decades. This is where Kurzweil is wrong.
    Can someone imagine the dynamics of a group that has access to AI for 20-30 years?
    I doubt that after 20 or 30 years, heck even after 10 years, they would need any money so the assumption that it will be shared with the rest of the world for financial reasons doesn’t seem founded.
    So I am trying to save and figure what would be the cost of entry in this club.
    No wonder that Kurzweil launched Blio, Singularity University and other ventures. Hopefully there will be room left for others as well.

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