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October 21, 2010

Predicting Stock Market Behavior with Social Networks

Stock Market Intersection
iStockphoto / James Steidl

Using a self-organizing fuzzy neural network model, researchers were able to correlate stock market movement 3 days in advance with a nearly 90% success rate by analyzing mood from a statistical sampling of tweets from Twitter.

Two mood measurement tools were used in the model. OpinionFinder measured public sentiment with simple positive / negative values while a new tool created by the authors called Google-Profile of Mood States, measured mood along six dimensions.

The paper discounts the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) which states that, on average, returns greater than the market average can't be obtained because prices reflect all information that is currently publicly available. However, the authors don't take into account that while there may be a short-term opportunity to take advantage of such tools, once publicly available, these tools will themselves simply provide new sources of information that will be built into to market prices, thus reducing the window of opportunity for using them to an advantage.

A number of ways to increase the accuracy of the authors' model can be imagined. For example, an improved model might give proportional weighting to the number of subscribers that an information source reaches to take in to account influence.


January 17, 2008

SciVestor Corporation launches Singularity-related technology research offerings

I spoke with Jonas Lamis, Executive Director of SciVestor Corporation regarding the launch of SciVestor this month. SciVestor is a research and advisory company focused on key Singularity technologies, and provides valuable insight as to the effects these emergent technologies will have on business, economic and societal models. SciVestor offers research reports that I believe are of value to investors who are looking to improve their investment strategies. Here is some key information that I have summarized from the SciVestor web site:

  • Robotics
    The robotics industry is expected to grow from $5B in 2007 to $50B in 2012. SciVestor believes the age of intelligent machines is at hand. From service robots to toys and teachers to companionship to war-fighting, the decade ahead will see a dramatic acceleration in human robot interaction (HRI).

  • Nanotechnology
    The rise of molecular manufacturing over the next decade portends a transformation across the supply and delivery chains. Traditional manufacturing enterprises could be displaced by distributed fabrication capabilities. Intellectual property rights for brands and designs will rise to the forefront when perfect replicas become commonplace.

  • Artificial Intelligence
    The software development marketplace is on a steady march to automation of more complex tasks and processes. In the decade ahead, we will see the rise of complex AI capabilities that will take ownership of virtually every repetitive digital task that could be automated. This shift will create significant disruptions in many career roles as well as with outsourcing companies that rely on human capital for efficiencies.

  • Life Extension
    At the intersection of genetics, biotechnology and Moore’s Law lies the new science of life extension. Over the next decade, we will see medical technologies deliver designer therapies targeting disease and degeneration on an individual basis. By 2015, we estimate that more than 10% of first world medical expenses will be devoted to life extension treatments, and many senior citizens in 2050 will have substantially lengthened, productive lifespans.

Jonas Lamis has extensive experience in corporate strategy, business development, and technology marketing with venture-backed enterprise software companies. He is Director of Partnerships at the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence. He is the founding editor of Architecture and Governance Magazine, authors the weblog Singularity U and co-launched Jonas received his MBA from The University of Texas at Austin, an MS in Systems Engineering and Optimization from Georgia Institute of Technology, and a BS in Industrial Engineering from Purdue University.

Chris K. Haley, Subscribe Get free RSS or email updates here. 


November 12, 2007

Investing for the Singularity

Being an active investor, it's natural for me to want to combine my two favorite pastimes and focus on investments in sectors that I think will benefit from technology advances in the coming years. Specifically, I think that robotics, artificial intelligence, genetics and nanotechnology will play pivotal roles in the coming decades. As such, I’d like to share with you a few of the investments that I have taken an interest in over the past year. Please be advised that I have personal investments in the companies listed below as of the time of this writing. In fact, I would not feel comfortable making a recommendation for a stock that I was not willing to personally invest in. It’s up to you to decide on an investing strategy that makes sense to you in regards to your own personal goals. Please make sure to do your own research, or consult with an investment advisor before making any investments.

Honda Motor Company (HMC) is certainly known for their automobiles, but if you look at their current research and development strategy, you'll also find that they are also focused on providing robotic solutions. Although too expensive for the mainstream market today, the ASIMO robot is well down the path toward being the automated home robot that we've all been expecting since watching the Jetsons cartoons. I find it fascinating that we are living in times where an autonomous robot has achieved fairly natural bipedal locomotion and can navigate obstacles while holding a drink tray or pushing a food cart.

iRobot (IRBT) is another favorite of mine. I gave two of the Roomba sweeper robots as Christmas presents several years ago to my extended family and kept a third for myself. I was simply amazed by the ability of these devices to keep up with the crumb trail that follows behind our children. We mercilessly forced it to clean up endless pet hair tumbleweeds, crayon shards and an uncountable number of Little Einstein cereal loops that had been pulverized into the carpet. While their domestic robot line has grown recently with the addition of floor washing, pool and gutter cleaning robots, you may not be aware that iRobot designs robots for the government and industrial sectors as well and has already delivered 1,000 of their PackBot robots. You can visit their web site at

Nuance Communications (NUAN) is a leader in the speech recognition market with their Dragon Naturally Speaking software for the desktop. Microsoft embedded this technology in the Vista release of Windows, but I personally find that the Dragon solution is more powerful and accurate. Nuance is positioned to do very well in the coming years with voice-activated telephone services, other technologies which permit the control of devices and applications by speaking and healthcare dictation and transcription services.

Happy investing!

Related Posts

The Singularity Summit 2008
Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence
What is the Singularity?
The Singularity Effect
Upcoming Artificial Intelligence Events

Chris K. Haley, Subscribe Get free RSS or email updates here.