Michael Anissimov, Steve Rayhawk, Anna Salamon, Tom McCabe, and Rolf Nelson have released the beta version of an application created from a Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence research project. The Uncertain Future predicts when human-level Artificial Intelligence will arrive based upon a rigorous mathematical model.
The application allows users to provide their own estimates as to the likelihood of key parameters. To assist you in determining the values of these parameters, links to noted schools of thought are provided with corresponding values spanning the gamut from true naysayer to advocate. Do you believe that Artificial Intelligence is impossible in principle like John Searle, or are you as optimistic as Stephen Hawking?